JUST IN: China Has ‘Theory of Victory’ to Defeat U.S. Military, Report Finds

By Josh Luckenbaugh

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China has not only closed the military capability gap and increased competition with the United States, but also has developed a strategy to defeat the United States in a potential conflict, according to a new report.

“The Future of Conflict and the New Requirements of Defense,” by the Special Competitive Studies Project — a bipartisan initiative promoting the adoption of emerging technologies in national security — outlines how advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence are “creating new ways to apply military force.”

China is looking to “harness these changes with the aim of eroding or even leapfrogging the United States’ military strengths,” the report said.

Over the last few decades, China has studied how the United States has traditionally fought wars using “networks of precision-guided munitions engaging each other,” or what the Chinese military refers to as “informatized warfare,” SCSP’s senior director for defense Justin Lynch said.

“They developed a theory of informatized warfare that describes how the United States fights and then developed system destruction warfare to be able to match — and they think defeat — the U.S. in informatized warfare,” Lynch said during a Defense Writers Group session Oct. 26.

Additionally, the Chinese want to be the “first movers” in the new mode of conflict they call “intelligentized warfare,” and by so doing become the world’s dominant military power, he said.

Intelligentized warfare utilizes emerging technologies such as AI, 5G networks and quantum computing to disrupt an adversary by attacking their ability to understand and perceive the world, Lynch said.

One area which gives China a potential advantage in developing intelligentized warfare capabilities is its fusion of military and civilian organizations, said SCSP senior advisor Ylber Bajraktari.

“The state directs the private companies there what to do,” Bajraktari said. “It speaks to their determination, their focus … their desire to resource the technological priorities that they really see as both key to overcoming some of the challenges that they're facing economically, demographically, militarily, but also to how they approach the rivalry [with the United States].”

One of the SCSP’s 10 recommendations in the report calls for the United States to “implement a new public-private partnering model with industry, academia, investors and civil society.”

“How do we harness the capital, the knowledge, the innovation, that now resides primarily outside the government — in contrast to the Cold War, where most of the innovation was happening inside the government, most of the [research-and-development] was paid for by the government?” Bajraktari said. “How do you bring some sort of a model that harnesses this, that's reflective of our ideology as a country, our democratic system of governance, but that is responsive to the state geopolitical competition?”

Other SCSP recommendations included embracing network-based operations, gaining and maintaining advantages in human-machine teaming and software and developing counter-autonomy capabilities.

Despite China’s significant technological strides, “asymmetries” such as the United States’ demonstrated ability to conduct joint operations and its strong partnerships with allies would give the country a powerful advantage in a potential conflict, Lynch said.

“Even if China were to be able to replicate the technology that we have, we can deploy it and employ it in a way that's difficult for them to match,” he said. “If we plan that out effectively, it means that we have capabilities that are difficult to duplicate that we can use to our advantage.”


Topics: International, Emerging Technologies, Warfare

Comments (6)

Re: JUST IN: China Has ‘Theory of Victory’ to Defeat U.S. Military, Report Finds

The United States and her economic and military coalition member states generate well over $41 Trillion in annual GDP and spend well over $1.2 Trillion on defense on an annual basis. The US and a number of her allies maintain nuclear weapons and massive first strike capability. Essentially, no single nation state nor any conceivable combination of nation states can match the United States and her economic and military coalition member states. It is just not possible. The poor Russian economy generates less than $2 Trillion annually in annual GDP and spends far less than $70 Billion annually for defense. This is about the same as Great Britain. Communist China, on the other hand, generates over $14 Trillion in annual GDP and spends less than $300 Billion annually on defense. Communist China is in a difficult position in that she is among the top three trading partners for the United States, the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and Australia. The Communist Chinese economy is dependent upon over $1.5 Trillion in annual trade with the US, EU, Japan, South Korea, and Australia. This is hardly the behavior of an enemy. Aside from that, Communist Chinese defense spending is entirely dependent upon economic well-being. The bottom line is that the United States is the economic and military global hegemon and will remain so for the foreseeable future. This is still a unipolar world centered on the United States.

David Tate at 12:33 PM
Re: JUST IN: China Has ‘Theory of Victory’ to Defeat U.S. Military, Report Finds

If we are to win such a war, the chip on our shoulder must be removed. Underestimating an adversary is a novice mistake that can and will lose a lot of lives. This isn't homeless afghanis or Iraqis. Basic training needs revamped to make hardened soldiers not "woke" pansies.

Fred at 4:16 PM
Re: JUST IN: China Has ‘Theory of Victory’ to Defeat U.S. Military, Report Finds

A Chinese leadership that seems to believe it's own bull about being able to defeat the US militarily is a highly dangerous situation. We should be doing whatever we can to make it unambiguously clear to Emperor Xi that going down that road would end the modern Chinese state.

Hoi Polloi at 3:45 PM
Re: JUST IN: China Has ‘Theory of Victory’ to Defeat U.S. Military, Report Finds

Hilarious! The Chinese are not even capable of retaking Taiwan.

The first thing President Trump should do in his second term is to formally recognize Taiwan, sign a treaty with them, and set up US military bases there.

Johnathan Galt at 1:53 PM
Re: JUST IN: China Has ‘Theory of Victory’ to Defeat U.S. Military, Report Finds

interesting analysis
if USA and allies block supply to China all hell would break loose and China would strike heavy blows on any nation that did so almost immediately and with certain destruction and removal of any blockade using missiles / civilian cargo ships altered for combat / an airforce that by then would be integrated with AI and akin to a swarm of wasps - the blockade would be met with extreme retaliation.
2. The attempts to block technology such as machines for semi conductors has already pushed China to integrate civil society and private firms and all sectors of society to work more closely together to overcome these illegal sanctions and without doubt China will not only develop their own industry but will surpass Taiwan semi conductors but will advance beyond anyone's imagination. America has already fallen behind China in AI and quantum computing which could be used for military purposes and soon China will become the leader in almost all new technologies for which the world over will need to source from them . They will take over the technology advancement of the world and are already doing so. Further to this China is able to unify its talented people and industries in a much more cohesive way with the CCP being able to manage further interventions to achieve goals at an earlier stage than any other country using its socialist centralised management.
Japan / south Korea / Taiwan are in a very vulnerable location to not only the Chinese but also North Korea and Russia who would also defend each other should America and its allies become involved in a war with China. American navy and satellites are unable to detect or know the whereabouts of the latest Russian submarines . Japan is no match for China and would be defeated or at least supressed in a very short period / including any US bases being eliminated as a prioritised strategy for the PLA.
South Korea would in the event of joining an attack on China would without doubt become involved in an abrupt and intense conflict with North Korea which could mean they will attempt to stay out of any conflict when it reaches boiling point with the US and allied forces unable to take on North Korea / China and Russia at the same time and Japan's ability to conduct warfare being quickly elliminated - the US and the rest would pull away once the warfare intensified.
China is learning and adapting from the collaborative measure using illegal sanctions against Russia during the Ukraine war and is readying its nation / economy / industries / military to become not only self sufficient resilient but also engineering ways to counter any potential sanctions imposed upon it in a deliberate effort to curtail any real impacts from such sanctions being imposed before or during a conflict.
I don't know and you don't know exactly what economic or alternative retaliations the Chinese govt would impose if sanctions were placed upon it but you can be certain they would have an immediate impact on supply and have severe impacts on the aggressors country so as to cause economic hardship and internal turmoil or perhaps designed to have a collapse of all systems.
The pentagon and defence dept without any doubt will continue to push into the asia pacific militarily but as you can see from events taking place such as the balloon being shot down - the pentagon , knowing a conflict with China would lead to America's defeat / embarrassment - humiliation has been playing down much of what is being reported about China.
For instance ; Washington and media loudmouths [ anti China belligerents ] = " eliminate the spy balloon "
Pentagon / CIA = " The balloon poses no threat to America "
So you see the American military and the establishment are at odds with each other right now - in fact , conflicted and this will become a major source of mismanagement at the upstart to the war - creating discord / dissention and conflicting decisions to be made - meanwhile a unified Chinese government with centralised authority over the military and society will deal a decisive blow to opponents.
The speed at which China is progressing not only technologically but also militarily means it would never matter how much the USA has spent nor will spend on military armament and technologies - China will simply exceed the USA and the longer it takes for the war to begin the worse off the USA military and its allies will be. Put it this way - America if it wanted to have any chance whatsoever would need to strike right now.
Russia has been pushed too far by America and is poised to strike.
There will be no conventional war between Russia / America - Russia is poised to nuke America and will use strategies to eliminate any response - so if they were to become involved in a Sino American war , the likelihood of erupting into nuclear war is hair trigger / not just possible but inevitable. At that point North Korea will nuke Japan and American assets in South Korea and no doubt target Washington. China would also be forced to use tactical nuclear weapons against American assets but not likely American soil unless the USA uses them on the Chinese population.
Therefore the likelihood of America attracting nuclear missiles to its shores by 3 - 4 nations simultaneously would be a no brainer.
America is already nearing civil war or at the very least a social rebellion that will create a complete breakdown of society and if this does not take place before the war it will most certainly erupt when war breaks out - simply because the public distrust of and dissention towards politicians / the pentagon / CIA / the police force and all authorities in America would erupt when they realise their govt has gotten them into a war with a superpower the size and might of China and no doubt Russia and North Korea all at the same time - well anyway from what we see and hear is already going on in America even as far away as Australia . we know all hell is ready to break loose and that in itself will cause chaos during this conflict which in itself may bring about America's defeat.
For the record
I am a 5th generation Australian
I support the Chinese vision of a shared future for the world and a peaceful co- existence for all nations

ryan winton peterson at 5:44 AM
Re: JUST IN: China Has ‘Theory of Victory’ to Defeat U.S. Military, Report Finds

I have no bravado. A first strike against our satellites (GPS, comms, ISR), internet and power grid will drive the US and its allies into internal chaos and prevent effective offensive action beyond existing forces for many months.

Steve Alonso at 12:17 PM
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