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cover story
June 2007
Southeast Asia Struggles to Create Anti-Terrorist Network
By Stew Magnuson
 SINGAPORE — The strategy is called “whack-a-mole” and it’s precisely what those fighting the so-called global war on terror want to avoid.
Waiting for a threat to rear its head, then reacting with a hammer is considered bad policy.
As conflicts rage in the Middle East and South Asia, and North Africa heats up, strategists must keep an eye on Southeast Asia, home to three troubling hotspots.
Malaysia and Singapore have so far successfully cracked down on homegrown terror groups, but volatile regions with active terrorist groups surround them.
Indonesia is home to the largest Muslim population in the world. Most citizens practice a tolerant version of Islam, but a violent fundamentalist group, Jemaah Islamiya (JI), has waged a series of high-profile attacks starting with the Bali bombing in 2002 that claimed 202 lives. Thailand’s restive south is a growing hotspot, and experts predict it may attract combatants from throughout the world. Separatists in the Philippines southern islands have waged battles against the majority Christian government for decades, although U.S. special operations forces there have had some success waging a counter-insurgency campaign.
Rohan Gunaratna, director of the International Center for Political Violence and Terrorism Research at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said the past five years have seen Southeast Asian governments set up the infrastructure to effectively combat and “manage” the terrorist threat.
But their efforts don’t wholly prevent the emergence of small groups that copy al-Qaida’s methods. Fueling their passions are the events in the Middle East, he said.
“These jihadists are largely driven by what is happening in the conflict zones in the world — particularly in Iraq.” The U.S. invasion serves as a “recruitment poster” for these groups, he told the Global Asia Security forum in Singapore.
The most dangerous group, he said, is Jemaah Islamiyah.
“This group still remains the most capable and the most credible terrorist organization in the region,” Gunaratna said.
Brig Gen. John Toolan, principal director for South and Southeast Asia and Pacific Security Affairs in the office of the secretary of defense, said there has been a great deal of bilateral partnerships in the region to combat terrorist networks. “But what we haven’t been able to do is bring it completely together in a multilateral picture,” he told reporters in Washington.
Singapore and Malaysia, in the aftermath of 9/11, effectively dismantled JI cells operating within their borders, Gunaratna asserted. One JI group based in Singapore had plans to bomb the U.S. embassy and subway stations. The plot was interrupted by the Singapore Internal Security Department in early 2002, but served as a wake-up call to the city state, said Mike Millard, author of “Jihad in Paradise: Islam and Politics in Southeast Asia.”
“Singapore has a very harmonious society for being a multi-ethnic society,” Millard told National Defense.
The mix is about 75 percent ethnic Chinese, 15 percent Malay and 6 percent Indian. The standard of living is high, there is low unemployment, and a notable lack of extreme poverty. “It’s not a perfect society, but it runs well,” Millard said.
It’s an efficient, well run government and that efficiency extends to its police departments, Millard noted.
Gunaratna said Singapore’s experiences managing terrorism should be shared with its regional and world partners. It has had success reaching into the Muslim community, engaging religious leaders to address the false ideology of extreme Islam, and reforming members of the cell that threatened it in 2002. Some extremists have even been released from prison.
Unlike some of its neighbors, Singapore occupies a small territory and has a small population — about 4.4 million. And like its neighbor, Malaysia, the government has enjoyed a long period of de facto one-party rule. Criticism of the government is discouraged.
Nevertheless, Singapore must remain vigilant, Millard said. “Singapore is always under threat,” he said. “It’s a prime target. Singapore represents everything the extreme Islamists don’t like. It’s pro-Western, prosperous and has high education levels.”
It also neighbors Indonesia, where JI is alive and well.
Gunaratna had sharp criticism for the Indonesian government’s efforts to rein in the group. He praised the government for establishing Detachment 88, an elite force dedicated to exposing and dismantling the group. It has arrested more than 200 suspects since its creation in 2005, and receives training and funding from the U.S. government.
However, two of the 2002 Bali bombing’s alleged conspirators are still at large — Noordin Mohammed Top and Dulamatin, who is believed to be in hiding in the Southern Philippines. JI’s spiritual leader, Abu Bakar Bashir, served 25 months on conspiracy charges for his role in the 2002 bombing and other incidents. The nation’s supreme court later overturned his conviction.
Gunaratna said the first thing Indonesia needs to do is outlaw the group. Although JI is on the United Nations list of designated terrorist groups, that is not the case in Indonesia, where suspects cannot be arrested unless they have committed a terrorist attack or in are in the stages of planning one. Indonesia must criminalize a group, Gunaratna said. Then, it can begin to dismantle its propaganda, fundraising and recruitment — the infrastructures that enable terrorism.
Meanwhile, Bashir is a free man. He espouses a virulent anti-Western ideology and wants an Islamic state with Sharia law installed in Indonesia. He denies that JI exists, and blames the Bali bombings on U.S. and Israeli agents. His freedom causes great anguish in Australia, whose citizens made up the bulk of the 2002 attack’s victims.
“Indonesians have done a remarkable job in targeting JI, but the organization is still very much intact. Bashir has killed 250 people. He is still alive and he is still continuing his campaign,” Gunaratna said.
Col. Muhammad Tito Karnavian, director of intelligence for Detachment 88, said a judge must rule that there is intent for terrorism based on sufficient evidence laid out in a trial.
“The problems of terrorism in Indonesia are complex,” he told the conference. “We have local homegrown groups, locally religious conflicts and internationally connected Islamist groups.”
Although many members of JI have been convicted and detained, others are still able to communicate within their network and the outside world — particularly with affiliated groups in the southern Philippines, southern Thailand, and Malaysia, Karnavian said.
These ties are a growing concern for neighboring countries.
Dulamatin, who like many Indonesians goes by only one name, is widely believed to have fled to the southern Philippines. His wife was arrested there in October, and she reportedly told authorities that her husband had been providing explosives training to members of Abu Sayyaf, a separatist group that is believed to be responsible for a series of bombings and kidnappings.
While not a household name, the $10 million reward offered by the U.S. government for his capture, is second only to Osama bin Laden.
U.S. special forces operators under the U.S. Pacific Command have been working in the Philippines since 2002. Gunaratna and half dozen other experts at the conference, gave their efforts there high marks.
The Philippines and its U.S. partners have “performed exceptionally well” countering Abu Sayeff, he said. The Philippines army is now adept at the use of night fighting, unmanned aerial vehicles, and psychological operations. U.S. forces there have put resources into building roads, wells, schools and health clinics to win over Muslim communities.
“Instead of hunting the terrorists, certain areas have been secured. … We have seen that the population has gone against terrorism,” Gunaratna said.
The U.S. military’s effort in the Philippines is one of several bi-lateral efforts. Japan and Australia are also active in the region.
Toolan said the Pentagon’s goal during the next couple years is to strengthen the regional network. One area is the Sulu and Celebes Seas — also known as the Sulawesi Sea — which he calls “a wide open expanse” and “ungoverned space.”
Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines all have remote islands in the area. The United States can assist the three nations in boosting their maritime awareness in the seas, where terrorists, smugglers and pirates operate. Malaysia recently received $12 million in U.S. assistance to boost its maritime surveillance capabilities in the waters, he said.
Further north, the growing insurgency in southern Thailand is raising alarm bells among analysts.
Jihadists want to build a new front in Southern Thailand, Gunaratna said. JI is sending fighters, technicians and explosives experts to the region, he asserted.
Southern Thailand “will become an important staging ground for foreigners to come and train and to fight,” he predicted. Islamic insurgents in the predominantly Buddhist nation have waged a terror campaign for the past three years that has claimed more than 2,000 lives.
At least three groups are carrying out attacks, and authorities have had a difficult time identifying the movement’s leaders to engage in negotiations, according to an International Crisis Group report, “Southern Thailand: The Impact of the Coup.”
The September coup that unseated the civilian government that was led by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra seems to be a double-edge sword, the report said.
Thaksin’s heavy-handed approach to fighting the insurgents was seen as counter-productive. The interim government has made progress in appeasing the concerns of the Muslim community. However, it can only do so much. The rest of the nation largely approved of the previous government’s get tough approach, and the military government has little political capital to spend, the report said.
“Southern Thailand is the most unstable area right now,” Millard said. “Thailand has been having political problems … and partially because of that, it has been unable to deal with the problems in the southern provinces. It’s getting out of hand.”
The military coup has also prevented the United States from supplying funding or other resources to Thailand, Toolan said. Until civilian rule is restored there, U.S. law prevents military assistance. Elections are scheduled this summer.
Gunaratna holds the Singapore model up as a way to defeat the terrorist networks in Southeast Asia.
Governments must significantly invest in engaging Muslim communities, especially in nations where they are minorities. They must build bridges by working with religious and political leaders in the communities and hire their members to work in law enforcement centers, he said.
The region needs to share information and create a network against the network.
“The spearhead in the fight against terrorism is intelligence,” he said.
Karnavian, of Detachment 88, said Indonesia needs the assistance of developed nations to fight the terrorist networks. However, the root cause of the problem is extremist theologies. “We have to defeat [the terrorist’s] ideology first,” he said.
Please email your comments to SMagnuson@ndia.org
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