FEATURE ARTICLE

February 2005

Military Officials Warn Al Qaeda Determined To Attack With WMD

by Harold Kennedy

Al Qaeda and other extremist groups are seeking to acquire and use a variety of weapons of mass destruction against the United States, U.S. military officials asserted. Most attacks probably would be small-scale, incorporating improvised delivery systems and easily produced chemicals, toxins or radiological substances.

“I think that al Qaeda is determined to get chemical, bacteriological, radiological or nuclear weapons, and as soon as it does, it will use them against us,” warned Mark Sheddan, responsible for WMD intelligence at the U.S. Special Operations Command, in Tampa, Fla.

Sheddan and other experts spoke recently at the command’s chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear conference and exhibition.

In an interview with National Defense after his presentation, Sheddan cited a November report from the Central Intelligence Agency to Congress.

“One of our highest concerns is al Qaeda’s stated readiness to attempt unconventional attacks against us,” the report said. “As early as 1998, Osama Bin Ladin publicly declared that acquiring unconventional weapons was ‘a religious duty.’ In 2003, an extremist cleric who supports al Qaeda attacks issued a fatwa that purports to provide a religious justification for the use of WMD against the United States.”

The report listed these specifics:

• Several groups have planned “poison plot” attacks in Europe. These agents could cause hundreds of casualties and widespread panic if used in multiple, simultaneous attacks, according to the study.

• A document recovered in Afghanistan indicates that al Qaeda has crude procedures for making mustard agent, sarin and VX, all potentially lethal chemical weapons.

• Other documents and equipment discovered in Afghanistan show that al Qaeda had conducted research on biological agents. The focus was primarily upon anthrax for mass casualty attacks, the report said. However, it added: “The group most likely will pursue and use other biological agents in smaller-scale attacks.”

• Both Mohammad Atta, a leader in the 9/11 attacks, and Zacharias Moussaoui, who was arrested by the FBI before the attacks, expressed interest in crop dusters, which raised suspicions that al Qaeda has considered using aircraft to disseminate bacteriological weapons.

• Al Qaeda is interested in radiological devices, also known as “dirty bombs,” the report said. Dirty bombs consist of conventional explosives wrapped around a radioactive substance. Construction of such a device is well within the group’s capability, because “radiological materials are relatively easy to acquire from industrial or medical sources.”

• Al Qaeda also is known to have conducted rudimentary nuclear research, but the extent of its program is unclear, the study said. The group has been the victim of several scams, perpetrated by outsiders promising to provide nuclear materials, but failing to deliver.

Several nations are helping to fuel the proliferation of nuclear weapons, Sheddan said. Russia and China continue to sell “dual-use” equipment, knowledge and technology, which can be used both for peaceful, non-military purposes and for the development of weapons, he said. In addition, he said, “North Korea and Iran are major proliferators of delivery systems, training and production equipment.”

The CIA report cited the existence of an underground network headed by Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan, which provided “significant assistance” to Iran’s nuclear program.

Stephen M. Younger, senior fellow at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and former director of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), agreed that the WMD threat exists, but he contended that it should not be exaggerated. “The probability of our being eliminated as a nation in such an attack is really quite small,” Younger said.

That’s the good news, he said. The bad news is that the chances of the United States being hit with a mass-casualty weapon are real.

“We’ve got to plan for what we think is the most likely threat,” Younger said. The nation’s leaders cannot delay, hoping the country will not be hit. “Hope is not a plan,” he cautioned.

Younger downplayed China and Russia as likely threats in the near future. “China now has a big economic stake in good relations with us,” he said. “Think about something not made in China. The CIA’s coffee cups are made in China. Even the Army’s berets are made in China.”

Russia is focused on its internal problems, not on competition with the United States. “Russia right now is a catastrophe,” Younger said. “If anything can go wrong, Russia can find it.”

Younger conceded Russia’s ability to change dramatically in a relatively short period. He recalled its climb from the ashes of World War II to launch Sputnik satellites in the 1950s. “Is Russia going to rise to become a near-competitor of the United States? It’s hard to say,” he said. “Are we going to war with Russia in the near future? I don’t think so.”

The most likely threats from weapons of mass destruction come not from nation states, but from trans-national terrorists, Younger said. “Terrorists today do have the capacity to use weapons that would cause mass casualties,” he said. “But they haven’t done it. Why not?

“When I was head of DTRA, I asked all kinds of experts. ... Some thought that using those weapons would cost the terrorists a lot of their constituencies. ... Or maybe it’s because we’ve destroyed so much of their networks that they can’t get their act together. ... Or maybe they simply haven’t gotten around to it yet.”

The mass-casualty weapons most likely to be used, Younger said, are chemical or biological. “Nuclear weapons are hard to make. ... First, you have to get nuclear material. Then, you have to make a device with a high-explosive detonator.

“If things go just right, it explodes. But you have to know all of these little tricks of the trade. It’s tough stuff. Yes, you can do it if you’re at least a middling-size country. It’s harder if you’re a small country, and harder still if you live in a hut or a cave.”

Stealing or buying a nuclear device from a country such as Russia for use as a terrorist weapon also would be difficult, Younger said. “Anybody who has ever been to Russia knows how difficult it is to smuggle anything in or out,” he noted. “It’s not as simple as it seems in the movies.” And even if terrorists got their hands on one, it wouldn’t be simple to use, he added. “There’s no big, red button to push.”

Chemical and biological weapons are comparatively much easier to acquire and use, Younger said. The 2001 anthrax attacks on media and U.S. Senate offices involved only a handful of deaths, but caused widespread panic, he said.

Those attacks were “professionally done by somebody who knew about all there is to know about anthrax,” Younger said. “You can go out and buy all the equipment you need for such an attack virtually anywhere in the world,” he said.

After 9/11, the United States launched an extensive effort to stop the spread of weapons of mass destruction. The Special Operations Command, which has been directed by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to take the lead in planning and leading U.S. counter-terror campaigns, is playing a major role.

SOCOM’s commander, Army Gen. Bryan D. Brown, told the conference that he has given Rumsfeld a 600-page plan to fight a global war, including a strategy to prevent terrorists from using mass-casualty weapons against the U.S. The plan went through six revisions before Rumsfeld accepted it, Brown said.

He revealed few details of the plan. A key concept, however, is in the slogan, “no borders, no boundaries,” he said. “We don’t have geographical boundaries in special operations,” he said. “We have a global defense.”

That slogan also is meant to be taken intellectually, he said. “The borders and boundaries in our minds are those of our own making,” he said. “In fighting this war, we have to think outside the box.”

Brown noted that his command established the center for special operations, with a staff of 450 personnel, with “no growth. We took it out of our own hide,” he said.

Al Qaeda, however, is a tough enemy, which recognizes the value of propaganda, he said. “Al Qaeda is the master of information warfare. We see it every day. ... Sometimes, we can’t get our message to the press. Al Qaeda is beating us to the punch every day.”

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