ARTICLE

June 2004

Missile Defense Agency Prepares For Key Flight Tests in 2005

by Roxana Tiron

Air Force Lt. Gen. Ronald Kadish, the head of the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency, is planning an aggressive push to get programs tested by 2005.

The agency has been under increasing pressure from Congress to prove the worth and efficacy of missile defense programs, for which the Bush administration requested $10 billion for fiscal year 2005.

Among the near-term priorities is to complete the testing of the newest version of the Patriot antimissile system, called Patriot Advanced Capability-3, and to prepare for the first flight of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense program. THAAD is resuming flight tests after years of redesign, Kadish told reporters.

MDA also is trying to accelerate the deployment of a sea-based missile defense system. “We are further integrating the SM-3 [standard missile] into the Aegis weapon system,” he said. The Aegis combat system is found on both Ticonderoga class cruisers and Arleigh Burke class destroyers. The Aegis missile-defense system will be developed in two-year blocks. Block 2004 will be the first Aegis BMD system that is certified for tactical deployment, Kadish said.

Despite delays and cost overruns, MDA will continue to pursue an airborne laser to defeat intercontinental ballistic missiles. “Although late, we are putting together a pretty aggressive directed energy program under ABL [airborne laser],” said Kadish. The ABL is a laser cannon on a Boeing 747 that will shoot down missiles as they are launched.

The schedule has been a problem, because, Kadish argued, “it is such a revolutionary technology. ... We believe we can make it work well, but we are having trouble doing that now.”

The biggest of the MDA programs, the ground-based missile defense systems, is readying for “initial defensive operations,” he said.

MDA will begin setting up interceptor missiles in underground silos at Fort Greely, Alaska, this year, and it is possible that some of those interceptors—together with those at Vandenberg Air Force Base—could be placed on operational alert before September.

The agency has two flight tests planned for this summer to assess the interceptor and kinetic warhead, said Kadish. He acknowledged, however, that if both tests fail the agency will have “big problems.”

Nevertheless, Kadish insisted that, in calendar year 2004, there will be a system in place that will defend the United States. “We will have the capability in September,” he said.

“Modeling and simulation predicts with great precision what would happen if it works as designed,” said Kadish. “The problem we have been having, from time to time in our flight test program, is a very frustrating one. It does not always work as designed, because somebody made a mistake in the process.”

What needs to be achieved in modeling and simulation is to “make sure that the designs match the manufacturer’s capability.”

Quality-control problems crop up during tests, because of the manufacturing process, he said. “Sometimes, there are issues associated with a design that works, but does not necessarily work as well under all conditions.” MDA needs to ensure that designs match the manufacturing capability, he added.

According to a report by the Defense Science Board, credible modeling and simulation is essential in the development, testing and deployment of missile defense systems. It plays “an unusually central role,” said the report. “It is the only way to account for all the pieces of the program, the resources that go into all those pieces, and their integration into elements,” such as ground-based missile defense, kinetic boost phase, Aegis and PAC-3.

However, for the technology to be effective, MDA’s models and simulations need to be more integrated and more realistic, said the report.

“The key MDA models and simulations are legacy models, developed largely as stand-alone models and hence are not well designed to fit together into the needed modeling and simulations architecture,” said the report.

The various modeling and simulation systems need to be built in such manner that they are able to interact as needed to provide certain insights, said the study.

“Given the complexity of the integrated missile defense task and the limitations on validation through flight testing, hardware-in-the-loop simulations become key to confidence in M&S validity,” said the study.

Further the MDA should develop a “significant M&S program” specifically oriented towards future concepts development, the study recommended.

The MDA should appoint an executive, reporting directly to the agency director, to provide “adequate management attention to the role of modeling and simulation,” the study said.

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