Article

October 2003

Ballistic, Cruise Missile Proliferation Worries U.S.

by Geoff S. Fein

As the United States moves closer to implementing a missile defense system, concern is growing that adversaries will resort to other methods to defeat U.S. forces, said Lt. Gen. Joe Cosumano, commanding general of the Army’s Space and Missile Defense Command.

Enemies could use a variety of measures to counter U.S. missile interceptors. Those tactics could range from the simple—chaffs—to the complex, such as sophisticated technologies to deflect or destroy U.S. missiles, Cosumano told the 2003 Space and Missile Defense Conference in Huntsville, Ala.

Several countries clearly have recognized the capabilities of decoys, said Clyde Walker, director of the Missile and Space Intelligence Center at the Defense Intelligence Agency.

“[There are a] number of countries doing research. We expect them to continue that development,” he said.

The perception of increased regional threats is driving investments in missile programs, said Col. Michael Engle, deputy commander of National Air Intelligence Center.

“Countries are shifting to longer range ballistic missiles,” he said. “Ballistic missile numbers will increase as accuracy and destructive impact grow.”

In the 1990s, China, Russia and Saudi Arabia were the only countries with these systems. Today, North Korea, Iraq, India and Pakistan have joined the pack, Engle said.

Of those countries, China has the most developed ballistic missile program. It is in the process of developing a long range ICBM.

Of all the countries developing missile programs, North Korea poses the most serious threat, he said. North Korea successfully tested a two-stage booster rocket in 1998 and is developing a newer missile that could be capable of hitting Hawaii or Alaska, Engle said.

North Korea is the world’s major exporter of missile technology to countries such as Iran and Pakistan, he added.

North Korea is also the number one exporter of theater ballistic missiles, selling systems to Iran, Syria and Yemen, said Walker.

Developing and exporting missile technology is a major source of revenue for North Korea. To protect its investment, the country has built underground missile facilities, he said.

To date, at least 25 countries have theater ballistic missiles in their inventory, or are developing them, said Walker.

“Russia has a new theater ballistic missile, but it hasn’t sold it,” he added.

With increased regional instabilities throughout the Middle East, for example, TBMs remain a threat. Those concerns are likely to increase as the sophistication of missile technology grows and countries gain access to satellite systems for guidance.

Even nations in the developing world are willing to invest a significant amount of resources to develop short-range ballistic missiles, said Army Maj. Gen. John Holly, head of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense program.

Most of the missile systems in the Middle East are Scud-derived.

Syria, for example, has one of the largest programs in the Middle East, Walker said. It has missiles capable of ranges of up to 700 km. Although Syria currently imports its missiles, it is looking to produce its own systems, he added.

Cruise missiles possibly pose a greater risk than ballistic missiles. Cruise missiles have greater accuracy; they can be launched from sea, land or air; they have the ability to incorporate decoys, and the missiles are difficult to intercept, said Engle.

“The success of the U.S. Tomahawks has helped heighten interest,” said Engle.

Although worldwide cruise missile programs have not kept pace with ballistic missile production, nine countries are looking to develop cruise missiles, he said.

Russia is the preeminent power in land attack systems, according to Engle. It has developed missiles capable of carrying both conventional payloads and weapons of mass destruction.

Besides Russia, South Africa, France, China, Israel, the United Kingdom, Germany, Sweden and Italy have all either developed cruise missile programs or are working toward that goal.

Cruise missile defense also will have to address the threat of enemy unmanned aerial vehicles.

Michael Schexnayder, associate director aviation and missiles systems for the Aviation and Missile Research, Development and Engineering Center, said that “foreign UAV activity is a threat to U.S. defenses right now.”

The difficulties in detecting UAVs make them dangerous, he said.

There are currently 161 operational UAV programs in 50 countries, Schexnayder said.

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