FEATURE ARTICLE

December 2001

Despite Doubts, Air Force Stands by Predator

by Roxana Tiron,

A growing confidence in unmanned aircraft technology may result in additional deployments of U.S. military drones to Afghanistan and other parts of the world in the near future.

But taking advantage of this technology is easier said than done, given that unmanned flight technologies are in various stages of development and have yet to reach technological maturity for combat use, said experts.

The UAV industry “is by no means a mature industry, “ said Daryl Davidson, the executive director of the Association for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles International, based in Arlington, Va. “We are still in the mode of gaining very valuable operational situations. The more information we gather in a hostile environment as it would be now [Afghanistan], the more we can improve the current information.”

The Air Force’s Predator unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) has gained notoriety in recent weeks for its role in U.S. operations against the Taliban militias in Afghanistan. But even the Pentagon acknowledged that the system still has problems that need to be worked out.

A report released in late October by the Pentagon’s office of operational testing and evaluation (DOT&E) said that the Predator is not “operationally effective or suitable.”

According to DOT&E Director Thomas Christie, “this judgment rests primarily on an operational assessment against the user’s standards for effectiveness and suitability.”

Predator began as a technology demonstration in 1994. The prime contractor is General Atomics, of San Diego, Calif. It was deployed to the Balkans in 1996. Since that time, Predator has been sent to Europe and also supported operations in Southwest Asia. During Operation Allied Force, over Kosovo, Predator flew more than 50 sorties in support of targeting operations.

Predator is a long-endurance system that can fly 400 nautical miles, loiter for about 14 hours, and then fly back 400 nautical miles. It operates usually at about 15,000 feet, although it can fly as high as 25,000 feet. The payload is roughly 450 pounds. A pilot with a stick controls the aircraft.

The UAV carries electro-optical and infrared video cameras, as well as a synthetic-aperture radar. “This aircraft is known for its video,” said an Air Force official. “It’s become the commander’s real-time eye in the sky, providing real-time streaming video back to the command post.”

The Air Force has stood up two Predator squadrons at Indian Springs Auxiliary Airfield, in Nevada.

Each Predator system consists of four air vehicles, the ground-control stations and satellite links. Air Force has ordered 12 systems, the last two of which were being delivered by late 2001.

To date, the Air Force has received 60 air vehicles and lost 20 due to mishaps, weather conditions, or losses over enemy territory.

Christie’s report noted that the Predator has poor target location accuracy and often communicates poorly. Rain has a detrimental effect on “strike support, combat search and rescue, area search and continuous coverage,” the report said.

DOT&E officials pointed out the Predator’s original program requirement is to operate for 30 days, providing around-the-clock reconnaissance support to commanders, including operations “under adverse weather conditions, in areas where enemy defenses have not been adequately suppressed, open ocean and contaminated environments.”

The Air Force Operational Test and Evaluation Center (AFOTEC) gave Predator a more favorable review. If found the system to be effective, but not without “limitations and difficulties and suitable, though reliability and maintainability problems persist.”

A DOT&E spokesperson said the office was unable to provide information about the testing criteria on which the report was based.

A senior Air Force official who briefed reporters on background explained that Predator was designed and built outside the normal acquisition procedures, as an experiment. That experiment turned out a system that the Air Force wanted for combat use.

Since the experimental development began in 1994, he said, “We’ve upgraded engines, we’ve upgraded sensors, we’ve done a lot of work.” He claimed that many of the problems cited by DOT&E have been fixed. “I think Predator proved its case in Kosovo, and I think if you spoke to the [regional commanders], they [would tell you that they] thought it was a useful capability.”

One improvement being sought is digital imagery, which will replace analog data, said the official. The technology, he said, will make it easier to pinpoint targets on the ground.

An Air Force spokeswoman, who was interviewed under condition of anonymity, said that the “Air Force likes the Predator.” Although it was never declared operational, it is being used as an operational system, because it works, she said. The Air Force is working on a formal response to Christie’s report and to Congress.

“You can only expect [Predator] to function within certain parameters,” said Larry Dickerson, senior analyst at Forecast International, a business intelligence firm. Even though the system has bugs, he said, the Air Force has few other options. “Otherwise, you won’t have the capability at all.”

Davidson attributed some of the problems to the fact that UAVs get relatively little funding, compared to manned aircraft programs.

But Pentagon expenditures on UAV programs are not insignificant, and are growing. The Defense Department invested more than $3 billion in UAV development, procurement and operations during the past five years. It plans to invest $2.3 billion more by 2005, and is likely to spend $4.2 billion by 2010. According to the so-called UAV Roadmap, by 2010, the UAV inventory of all the military services is expected to grow to 290 vehicles.

Dickerson questioned whether the current focus on UAVs will be maintained, once they are out of the spotlight. “Right now, they [UAVs] are getting attention, but if they will after this conflict that is questionable.” After Desert Storm, for example, the Pentagon realized it needed more reconnaissance systems. “That was 10 years ago, and they are still not doing anything about it,” he said. “The F-22, the Joint Strike Fighter, those are the top of the list—UAVs are only the bottom of the system. We are very unfamiliar with UAV operation.”

In his opinion, the DOT&E report is stating the obvious. “The worst thing that happens with UAVs is that people ask them to do a lot, and they are asked to do more and more,” he said. “If you think they have problems with the Predator, wait until they do the UCAV (Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle), because it is not going to be easy.”

The Predator was not designed to be armed, but nevertheless is being equipped with Hellfire missiles. The senior Air Force official said, without providing specifics, that a UAV mission recently demonstrated that Predator was “combat capable” as a Hellfire shooter. He noted that the armed Predator is compliant with the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces, or INF Treaty, which restricts the use of long-range cruise missiles.

To be able to mount two Hellfire missiles per aircraft, the wings had to be modified.

The Air Force spokeswoman said that the testing had two phases. One focused on safely launching a Hellfire missile from a low altitude and hitting a target. The second phase was about engaging targets from altitudes as high as 15,000 feet. However, portions of the second phase have not been completed yet, the spokeswoman said. The plan was to try to hit moving targets, but the Air Force senior official said they ran out of money before they could accomplish that part of the test.

During the Hellfire tests, the official said, there were concerns about the 100-pound load and how it would affect the aircraft. “We did reduce endurance by a couple of hours because of the drag,” he said. “We also dissembled a wing to see how much fracturing we had, and we didn’t have that much.”

General Atomics is currently developing Predator B, a turbo-prop system that, officials said, will have 50 percent more payload capacity, an endurance for up to 24 hours and speeds over 220 knots operating at altitudes of 45,000 feet.

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