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National Defense > Blog > Posts > Pentagon Still Shell-Shocked by Sequester
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3/7/2013By Sandra I. Erwin 
 To say that the Defense Department was blindsided by the automatic budget cuts that hit the federal government last week is an understatement.
Most people in the Department of Defense were firmly convinced that the cuts would never happen, a senior Pentagon official said March 5.
“We did not see the writing on the wall,” said John B. Johns, deputy assistant secretary of defense for maintenance policy and programs.
Former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta’s blustery rhetoric about the impact that sequestration would have on the military was regarded as part of the necessary game the secretary had to play to protect the military budget. But Johns acknowledged that the Pentagon should have been better prepared for what was coming. Panetta's predecessor Robert Gates had warned the Pentagon bureaucracy and the defense industry in 2009 that the spigot of military spending that opened on 9/11 was closing. But most of the Pentagon did not really believe it would happen, at least until military forces were out of Afghanistan, Johns said during a question-and-answer session at a defense industry conference in Arlington, Va., hosted by Aviation Week and Space Technology.
“As a community, we thought money would continue to flow to us as long as we were in Afghanistan,” said Johns. “I believe many people thought that, and many people inside the building were saying that.”
As the Pentagon tries to come to grips with the new fiscal reality, it also has to deal with a growing credibility crisis. Republican lawmakers and pundits have blasted defense officials for “crying wolf” about sequestration and for having failed to prepare for across-the-board cuts that Congress put into the 2011 Budget Control Act as a mechanism to force both parties to agree to a deficit-reduction deal. Between August 2011 and November 2012, Pentagon officials repeatedly stated that they were not revising their budgets or making contingency plans for sequestration, and frequently pointed out that the cuts would be too damaging to even contemplate. That strategy clearly backfired, Johns noted.
The military accounts that are taking the biggest hit from sequestration are operations and maintenance, which pay for training, equipment repairs and overall combat readiness activities. But long before the prospect of sequester emerged, it had been known that the O&M accounts were under-funded, said Johns. Sequestration was just the straw that broke the camel’s back. “We could have predicted the pressure years ago and better prepare ourselves for it,” he said.
Gates’ push to cut overhead costs that began in 2009 lost steam soon after it started, he said. “Had we taken that a little more seriously as a community, we might be in a little better position than we are right now.”
The Pentagon had hoped for relief from Congress, and underestimated its political weakness. Since last fall, a parade of senior military and civilian leaders testified on Capitol Hill on numerous occasions about the potential consequences of sequestration. But they were mostly preaching ot the choir. The majority of the hearings were hosted by the pro-military House and Senate armed services committees. Those are “friendly faces,” Johns said. “The problem we have is in the other committees and with the members of Congress at large.” The House and Senate armed services' panels appreciated the Pentagon brass showing up to testify, he said, “but their effect on the overall community is not sufficient.”
Johns insisted that he was not suggesting that Congress is accusing the military of lying. “That could be one conclusion” but the most likely explanation for Congress turning a cold shoulder to the military is that they do not understand how the cuts are applied, he said. “That math needs to be explained to people,” he said. “I’m not sure it’s a credibility problem with the military or whether it’s a matter of convenience that some don’t want to understand.”
In hindsight, Johns said, the Pentagon should have anticipated the current budget crisis, regardless of sequestration. A decade of rapidly rising budgets blinded the building to reality. “We needed to start reducing infrastructure as we were building up for Iraq and Afghanistan,” he said. “Ideally we would have established capability during the 10 year ramp-up in anticipation of having to take it down. We didn’t really do that very well,” he sad. The Pentagon as a result is now saddled with crippling overhead costs that are spread over a declining workload.
Johns pushed back on the idea that senior military leaders have overhyped the impact of sequestration. Anyone who says that doesn't understand the math, Johns said. The outrage about the Navy cancelling an aircraft carrier deployment also reflects a lack of understanding of how the sequester works, he said.
Analysts have questioned why the Department of Defense should be treated as a sacred cow/ With a budget of $648 billion, the Pentagon should be able to find $43 billion of wasteful spending in order to meet the sequester target.
Johns said the reality is more complex. The O&M accounts in fact face a 40 to 60 percent cut over the next six months, he said. That is because of a combination of the sequester, of not having a full-year appropriation, budget cuts that President Obama directed in 2011, and his decision to exempt military personnel pay and benefits from the automatic cuts. “We are not crying wolf,” Johns said. “These are real impacts.”
Photo Credit: Thinkstock
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