Defense budget gloom-and-doom vibes are spreading inside the beltway. Secretary Robert Gates says to expect modest increases of no more than 2 percent in the coming years. But industry insiders worry that the 2011 budget — the first one that will truly bear the Obama administration’s imprint — will be the beginning of a major downturn.
Pat Towell, a defense analyst at the Congressional Research Service, says one likely scenario is a budget that will preserve personnel accounts but head south in discretionary spending such as weapons development and procurement. When Dick Cheney was secretary of defense, he killed 13 programs, Towell says. “If you have a credible secretary of defense with a coherent program, he can make it happen.”
Frank G. Hoffman, a research fellow at the Marine Corps’ combat development command, says military leaders remain in denial about potential cuts in the budget. There’s not an active-duty general who’s been a general officer in a period of declining budgets, says Hoffman. “There isn’t a scenario in the building to deal with flat budgets, or a minus-2 percent.”