Washington Pulse 

Estimating Tanker Cost is No Modeling Job 

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By Sandra i. Erwin and Grace V. Jean 

The Pentagon is a huge fan of computer modeling and simulations — for everything from training to designing weapons systems. Models are also commonly used to estimate the cost of military hardware. But when it comes to the controversial Air Force tanker, no modeling is allowed. “We won’t be using any models as it relates to establishing cost realism,” said Director of Defense Procurement and Acquisition Policy Shay Assad. “We’re going to do what I’ll call classic cost realism analysis … We will not utilize Monte Carlo simulations in our cost analysis.”

In Monte Carlo simulations — named after Monaco’s casinos — the computer selects values at random to simulate a model.
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