SAPPORO, Japan — Japan’s government is about to kick off a major expansion of the nation’s space programs. The goal is to broaden the scope of space research from traditional areas such as exploration into new military and commercial applications.
The intent is to boost the country’s space industry and, over time, become less dependent on foreign suppliers such as the United States.
“There was a huge inferiority complex for the Japanese industry, that we needed to catch up with the top-level, state-of-the-art technology,” says Hokkaido University associate professor Kazuto Suzuki.
These goals would have been unrealistic until Japan’s legislature passed a law that for the first time creates a dedicated space bureau — run by a controversial politician, Seiko Noda.
“They knew they had to change their space law and their space organization because they were not structured and organized in order to compete in the 21st century,” says Vincent Sabathier, senior fellow and director of space initiatives at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
The Japanese government beginning in the 1970s invested 4 trillion yen into research and development projects, including satellites, rockets, launchers, exploration spacecraft, and most recently, Kibo, the experimental module that was installed aboard the International Space Station this summer.
But critics for years have questioned the return on investment in space. “It’s really difficult to justify such an amount of money,” especially at a time when the nation’s public debt is running at 180 percent of its gross domestic product, says Suzuki.
The new policy seeks to ensure that expenditures in space programs yield tangible benefits. “If we spend money in space, it’s because it’s useful. For example, an investment in the earth observation satellite is justifiable because Japan is an earthquake-prone country,” he says. “We need the earth observation satellite to monitor the aftermath of earthquakes.”
In the defense sector, Suzuki expects to see much change. Previously, the Japanese restricted the use of space for peaceful purposes only. That meant the Ministry of Defense was banned from operating or owning space systems.
Without an immediate threat to its territory, Japan had little need for military surveillance satellites. Commercial standards were adequate for self-defense forces.
That situation changed dramatically in 1998 when North Korea flew a missile over Japan. “That was a big shock for the Japanese people,” says Suzuki.
The government decided to develop an information gathering satellite to monitor North Korea, which critics assailed as an infringement upon the 1969 resolution prohibiting the use of space for military purposes. Four IGS satellites are now in orbit, but they provide low-quality imagery and there are restrictions on their operations — making them less useful than commercial satellites.
These satellites were controlled by the prime minister’s information and research bureau. The new law shifts such authority to the Ministry of Defense. One of its first projects could be an early warning satellite to detect missile launches.
Japan currently depends on the United States and its early warning satellite signatures for such information. But the dataflow between the two nations is problematic, says Suzuki.
“Introducing Japan’s own satellite is important because we need at least two systems to verify the data of the detection of the missile launch,” he says. Among politicians and industry officials, there’s general support to pursue this, he adds.
The second priority is communications. Japan’s self-defense forces increasingly are going abroad for coalition missions. The Maritime Self-Defense Force and Air Self-Defense Force are operating in the Indian Ocean and Kuwait, respectively, in support of operations in the Middle East.
“We need communications channels for those operations outside of the territory,” says Suzuki. The forces rely on commercial communications satellites, which do not have data encryption capabilities. That means the information sent by those units is not being protected from prying eyes and eavesdropping ears. Developing an exclusive communications satellite for the military would help to resolve that issue.
The new law also is designed to make Japan more competitive on the global space market. Previous efforts in space were on high-risk and expensive research and development programs. The space industry had no incentive to make those technologies less expensive and more useful for potential customers.
Government agencies will now be expected to pursue projects to put satellites and other spacecraft to use, and they will demand cheaper and more efficient systems, he adds.
But so far ministries have balked at having to allocate their own funds for space, so lawmakers have decided that the bulk of the space budget will continue to come from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology.
“That’s good because it will encourage them to use space,” Suzuki says.
The new fiscal year begins in April, and early budget plans indicate that there is a growing appetite for satellites.
“They’re going to try to rely more on their own industry,” says Sabathier. “Eventually, they will have an impact on competitiveness on the global space market.”
But in order to develop the industrial base so that they can export technologies, Japan will have to renegotiate its 1990 Satellite Procurement Agreement with the United States, which required the Japanese to consider foreign markets in any non-research and development satellite procurements. The country has procured 13 satellites since the agreement, 12 of which are U.S.-made.
Scientists and engineers have raised concerns about the new law because they worry the commercial focus will be detrimental to space science research. But, in fact the space law seeks to protect space science, says Suzuki.
In recent years, Japan has had several successful space exploration missions, including Hayabusa, a spacecraft that studied a near-Earth asteroid, and Hinode, an observatory satellite studying the sun. Those researchers have gained international renown and such a reputation will attract even more attention from research funding and scientists. It’s becoming a soft power for Japan, says Suzuki.
But Japan is not the only one making international headlines for space successes. China in September completed a manned mission that featured the nation’s first spacewalk.
“Clearly there is a lot of activity going on in Asia right now, driven by the Chinese, who are aggressive,” says Sabathier.
Suzuki says that Japan is not threatened by China’s efforts in space. “China wasn’t the main factor in promulgating this law, despite having successful manned programs,” he says. But what concerns the nation is that China has been collaborating with other nations, including Nigeria, Indonesia and Venezuela, and offering them cheap satellite launching services in exchange for oil and other resources.
“Space is an amazing dual political and foreign policy tool. People tend to ignore that,” says Sabathier. “The Chinese are very good at it.”
In Asia, China is becoming a regional leader in space organizations — something Japan also is striving to do — and other nations are starting to take them seriously.
“They are making a lot of noise internationally,” he says. Japan, on the other hand, has been very quiet. Despite collaborating with the United States in many programs, it is still isolated in the global space market. “The technology level of Japan is much higher than China, but still there is no thrust nor drive in their space program,” says Sabathier.
But the new law should stimulate some impetus and enable a much stronger space program that Japan can use to defend its technical position, even if only with respect to China, he says.
“It’s not a military competition,” says Suzuki. “It’s a diplomatic competition for regional cooperation in space.”
The two nations have similar space exploration goals: in 2013, both plan to send a lunar lander to the moon. In 2017, they are planning for a lunar sample return mission. All of these developments indicate that there are aspirations in each country to send a man to the moon.
“There will be a race in the middle of the 2020s to see who will be first,” predicts Sabathier.
Currently, U.S. and European commercial systems dominate space. But that could change.
“China is going to be a player, whether we like it or not,” says Sabathier. “In the next five years, China will emerge on the commercial market.” He adds that Japan also will be more competitive in space, thanks to the new law, and that will affect the market share.
But it is too early to judge the full effects of the law. The impacts on the global market and additional military space capabilities won’t arrive until at least 2015, Sabathier says.
“I don’t see any fundamental change in the near term,” says Gen. C. Robert Kehler, commander of U.S. Air Force Space Command. He tells reporters in Washington that he is encouraged by the advancements that are being made in space.
“Our policy is to support the advancement of space for peaceful purposes for everyone,” he says. “The question becomes, as we watch this domain change, as we look at the future, what are the implications for us, as we move forward.”