The market for military trainer aircraft will shrink over the next decade, analysts predict.
Trainers are used to prepare flight crews for combat operations. They typically are turboprops that can replicate the characteristics of jet aircraft and are instrumented for specialized military missions.
The coming decrease in fixed-wing trainer production will be spurred by flagging U.S. military demand and a reduction in worldwide manufacturing of warplanes, according to a study by Forecast International. The study looked at a 10-year period from 2008 to 2017.
Annual production of fixed-wing trainers will peak in 2009. It will then gradually slide, hitting a low point in 2017, said Douglas Royce, an aerospace analyst and the study’s author. It will reach a high of 212 units in 2009. But that number will eventually drop to 105 units in 2017, the study said. Overall, manufacturers will build 1,550 trainers between 2008 and 2017, which will be worth an estimated $17.1 billion.
The market for piston engine military trainers is also dying out and will comprise only 18 aircraft from the total number of trainers to be produced until 2017, the study said. Piston trainers are typically used for basic flight familiarization. But militaries can now educate pilots in these fundamentals by using the same aircraft that would be found in any civilian flight school, Royce said.
The study, The Market for Military Fixed-Wing Trainer Aircraft, is based on current trends and assessments of the military’s future needs, Royce said.
There are two main reasons for the trainer market’s shrinkage, the study said.
First, demand from the U.S. military is falling, mainly because the Air Force and Navy will conclude their acquisition of the Joint Primary Air Training System, as the two services have already purchased enough to meet their needs during the next several years. JPATS is the military’s standard turboprop trainer for undergraduate pilots. That program alone accounts for 60 percent of market demand in the next decade, Royce said.
“When [U.S. demand] goes away there’s no other replacement for it,” Royce said. “Russia’s not going to suddenly step forward and order 500 trainers. The Europeans aren’t going to do it. There’s no one in Asia who is going to generate those kinds of numbers.”
Likewise, the Navy just produced its last T-45 in 2007, which means that the service will not be buying any for several years. The T-45 Goshawk is used for intermediate and advanced Navy pilot training.
There will be an effort by the United States to replace the T-38 Talon at some point, Royce said, but added that he does not project that to happen during the next 10 years. The T-38 Talon is a twin-engine, high-altitude, supersonic jet trainer used to prepare pilots to fly front-line fighter and bomber aircraft.
The second major cause of sliding demand is that many nations’ air forces are reducing their fleets of warplanes.
“You typically buy fighters when you are about to fight a war,” Royce said. “If you are really worried [about war] you are going to buy more fighters. If you’re not, you’re going to look to cut funding.”
Along with a decreasing customer base, there is more competition in the market because of more new players, as some countries are now beginning to develop their own aerospace industries. Those states include China, Pakistan, South Korea and India, said the study.
“If you imagine a shrinking pool with more frogs in the pool, you can imagine that the competition to get the flies is going to be a little tougher than if you have just one frog in that pool,” Royce said.
For now at least, these countries are developing their aerospace industries from a desire for increased self-sufficiency. Another reason is to grow their economy. This is much like what Brazil did with Embraer, the state-owned company that is now one of the world’s largest aircraft manufacturers, Royce said.
The study also looked at overall market values. The production of jet trainers is expected to reach $13.2 billion during the forecast period, or 73 percent of the value of the entire market. This reflects the higher price of jet aircraft, compared to turboprop airplanes, Royce said.
As for the number of aircraft manufactured, Hawker Beechcraft will lead the market with 491 T-6 turboprop trainers, the study said. The total value is expected to be $2.9 billion. The T-6 is a JPATS system.
BAE Systems is expected to top the market with production valued at $3.3 billion over the next decade. It will build 151 Hawks, which are jet trainers.