Air Force Lt. Gen. Ronald Kadish, the head of the Pentagon’s Missile
Defense Agency, is planning an aggressive push to get programs tested by 2005.
The agency has been under increasing pressure from Congress to prove the worth
and efficacy of missile defense programs, for which the Bush administration
requested $10 billion for fiscal year 2005.
Among the near-term priorities is to complete the testing of the newest version
of the Patriot antimissile system, called Patriot Advanced Capability-3, and
to prepare for the first flight of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense program.
THAAD is resuming flight tests after years of redesign, Kadish told reporters.
MDA also is trying to accelerate the deployment of a sea-based missile defense
system. “We are further integrating the SM-3 [standard missile] into the
Aegis weapon system,” he said. The Aegis combat system is found on both
Ticonderoga class cruisers and Arleigh Burke class destroyers. The Aegis missile-defense
system will be developed in two-year blocks. Block 2004 will be the first Aegis
BMD system that is certified for tactical deployment, Kadish said.
Despite delays and cost overruns, MDA will continue to pursue an airborne laser
to defeat intercontinental ballistic missiles. “Although late, we are
putting together a pretty aggressive directed energy program under ABL [airborne
laser],” said Kadish. The ABL is a laser cannon on a Boeing 747 that will
shoot down missiles as they are launched.
The schedule has been a problem, because, Kadish argued, “it is such
a revolutionary technology. ... We believe we can make it work well, but we
are having trouble doing that now.”
The biggest of the MDA programs, the ground-based missile defense systems,
is readying for “initial defensive operations,” he said.
MDA will begin setting up interceptor missiles in underground silos at Fort
Greely, Alaska, this year, and it is possible that some of those interceptors—together
with those at Vandenberg Air Force Base—could be placed on operational
alert before September.
The agency has two flight tests planned for this summer to assess the interceptor
and kinetic warhead, said Kadish. He acknowledged, however, that if both tests
fail the agency will have “big problems.”
Nevertheless, Kadish insisted that, in calendar year 2004, there will be a
system in place that will defend the United States. “We will have the
capability in September,” he said.
“Modeling and simulation predicts with great precision what would happen
if it works as designed,” said Kadish. “The problem we have been
having, from time to time in our flight test program, is a very frustrating
one. It does not always work as designed, because somebody made a mistake in
the process.”
What needs to be achieved in modeling and simulation is to “make sure
that the designs match the manufacturer’s capability.”
Quality-control problems crop up during tests, because of the manufacturing
process, he said. “Sometimes, there are issues associated with a design
that works, but does not necessarily work as well under all conditions.”
MDA needs to ensure that designs match the manufacturing capability, he added.
According to a report by the Defense Science Board, credible modeling and simulation
is essential in the development, testing and deployment of missile defense systems.
It plays “an unusually central role,” said the report. “It
is the only way to account for all the pieces of the program, the resources
that go into all those pieces, and their integration into elements,” such
as ground-based missile defense, kinetic boost phase, Aegis and PAC-3.
However, for the technology to be effective, MDA’s models and simulations
need to be more integrated and more realistic, said the report.
“The key MDA models and simulations are legacy models, developed largely
as stand-alone models and hence are not well designed to fit together into the
needed modeling and simulations architecture,” said the report.
The various modeling and simulation systems need to be built in such manner
that they are able to interact as needed to provide certain insights, said the
study.
“Given the complexity of the integrated missile defense task and the
limitations on validation through flight testing, hardware-in-the-loop simulations
become key to confidence in M&S validity,” said the study.
Further the MDA should develop a “significant M&S program”
specifically oriented towards future concepts development, the study recommended.
The MDA should appoint an executive, reporting directly to the agency director,
to provide “adequate management attention to the role of modeling and
simulation,” the study said.