In the movement to transform the U.S. armed forces—and in
their ongoing efforts to fight an unconventional war against terrorism—the
modeling and simulation industry will play a critical role. The
industry also will have to transform, to adapt to this changed world.
From the game of chess to today’s computer models, modeling
and simulation (M&S) technologies have played an increasingly
important role in defense planning.
The end of the Cold War, which rendered some Pentagon combat models
obsolete, led some experts to doubt the future of M&S as a key
decision-support tool in U.S. military planning. We believe the
contrary to be true.
Four major drivers will ensure and expand the role of M&S services
and the contractors who deliver these services to the U.S. Defense
Department. Those drivers include:
These factors were present well before the terrorist attacks on
New York and Washington, but they were magnified by the tragic events
of September 11. U.S. defense planners have undergone the same profound
shock as our society. The shock will strengthen the movement to
transform our armed forces to fight a new and, by Cold War standards,
unconventional conflict. M&S itself will play an integral role
in shaping this change, but M&S will have to transform, to adapt
to this changed world.
There are four key trends reshaping the future of the M&S industry:
War-fighter focus, broader usage, consolidation and globalization.
War-fighter Focus
Much like commercial enterprises in the 1990s, the Defense Department
caught the technology bug. Technology advances, rather than the
user applicability, drove M&S procurement. The Defense Modeling
and Simulation Office (DMSO) now is seeking to turn around that
thinking. A core part of the DMSO’s master plan refocuses
the Pentagon’s M&S efforts on the needs and requirements
of the war-fighter/end-user.
A key aspect of this war-fighter focus is the current effort for
breakthroughs in simulating and forecasting human decision-making.
War-gaming engines are good at tracking the motions of large-scale
forces, the interactions of weapons systems and abstract tactics
and strategies. But they do a poor job when it comes to simulating
the influence of human psychology.
Virtual commanders don’t make misjudgments in the heat of
combat; virtual soldiers don’t improvise on the battlefield.
Each element follows its programmed script.
The Defense Department and contractors are striving to create technologies
that do a better job incorporating human variability into war-gaming.
One solution has been to graft real land, air and sea forces in
actual exercises onto computer-generated simulations.
Along with continuing breakthroughs in raw computational power
and improved simulation algorithms, distance-learning and broadband
technologies are playing key roles in expanding the use of these
solutions. For example, Distributed Mission Training (DMT) is being
used to track actual pilot behavior to capture the missing human
element in existing M&S systems.
Broader Usage
The new DMSO master plan should, at a minimum, increase M&S
standardization, as well as its effectiveness and efficiency. However,
M&S activities will no longer remain limited to warfare systems.
Simulation-Based Acquisition (SBA) will play a growing role in
enabling planners to determine future platform needs, as well as
assist in the procurement of extremely complex platform assets.
This form of M&S already is being used heavily in joint procurements,
either between U.S. service branches or among NATO partners. The
Joint Strike Fighter program stands as a case in point. It is expected
that SBA’s adoption rate will accelerate as the program managers
become more knowledgeable of SBA’s benefits, while struggling
under macro pressures to boost procurement output without significant
increases in funding.
Even before the events of September 11, the Bush administration
had envisioned dramatic structural changes in our national defense.
M&S has an important potential role in enabling planners in
the OSD and the Joint Chiefs levels fulfill this sweeping mandate.
Further, M&S may play a “business process reengineering”
role as the Defense Department’s infrastructure is evaluated
and the next rounds of base closures are considered.
Computer simulation, of course, is no substitute for the structure,
commitment and focus necessary for real-world military success.
Nonetheless, thanks to advances in broadband and wireless Internet
technologies, productive distance learning finally has become a
reality.
Political and environmental concerns also will serve to propagate
M&S and the need for further advances in the technology. An
increasing number of today’s military operations are so-called
“operations other than war.”
Examples include policing, peacekeeping and drug interdiction,
all missions that can take place in urban areas (where civilians
exist). M&S can enable military and other governmental authorities
to test and evaluate methods of dealing with hostile threats, including
biological attacks, without alarming civilian populations.
Consolidation
Despite unprecedented contractor consolidation over the past 10
years, the domestic market for M&S services—namely, model
design and programming—remains largely fragmented. It is true
that M&S services remains a niche business because of its inherent
need for deep domain or mission-type expertise on one hand and sophisticated
technology capabilities on the other hand.
Nonetheless, larger players have continued to supplement their
leading market positions with strategic acquisitions in the space.
Among others, acquirers have included Northrop Grumman’s Logicon
division, Lockheed Martin and L-3 Communications. These acquisitions
have typically been sought to broaden domain expertise and technical
depth as the demands and opportunities for future M&S rise.
Globalization
The United States is far ahead—perhaps too far ahead—of
its NATO allies with respect to M&S. Foreign governments, however,
are waking up to the benefits of M&S for military as well as
civilian operations. French contractors Thales (formerly Thomson
Simulation) and EADS (European Aeronautic Defense and Space Company)
already have established M&S expertise.
Standardization will encourage further catch-up by the Europeans.
NATO and the United States have committed themselves to M&S
software based on the High Level Architecture (HLA) standard. HLA
has some significant advantages over the Distributed Interactive
Simulation (DIS) protocol used by the Europeans. HLA allows for
a much more flexible framework to network multiple M&S systems
and link simulated environments to live players and operational
systems. This compatibility will facilitate joint efforts among
U.S. military services as well as allies.
Robert D. Kipps and Jean A. Stack are senior executives at Houlihan
Lokey Howard & Zukin’s Government Services & Aerospace/Defense
Investment Banking Group, in McLean, Va.