The cost of visual simulation technologies has plunged to a point
that commercial applications are becoming more and more viable,
said a recent industry study. Just five years ago, about two-thirds
of all revenues generated by the market for visual simulation were
accounted for in the military sector. By 2000, about 54 percent
of visual simulation revenues were generated by the commercial sector.
By 2007, nearly two-thirds of the total revenues generated by the
visual simulation markets will come from the commercial sector,
said a report released in late September by Frost & Sullivan,
a business intelligence firm in Mountain View, Calif.
Less expensive solutions for visual simulation, said the study,
will slow the growth and the overall revenue potential for visual
simulation hardware markets in the short- to mid-term.
Numerous hardware and software companies have entered the market
over the past two years, mainly focusing on personal computer-based
image generation (PC-IG) systems. The growing interest in the market
has been driven by advances in PC computing and the emergence of
the Microsoft Windows NT operating system (OS), as well as the proliferation
of the Linux OS.
Growth in the software sector, additionally, has been fueled by
advancements in real-time three-dimensional (3D) simulation software
and the development of tools for object modeling and virtual prototyping,
as well as scene and terrain database design.
There are three basic types of competitors in the IG market: high-end
IG original equipment manufacturers, makers of PC-IG, and IG integrators.
In the high-end IG market in 2000, Silicon Graphics Inc. (SGI)
was the market leader, with a 53 percent share. Evans & Sutherland
(E&S) followed, with a 21 percent share, and CAE Electronics
had a 16 percent share.
SGI and E&S dominate the military sector. SGI captured the
largest share of the commercial market, with about 44 percent. E&S
is strong in international non-U.S. military sales, while CAE’s
dominance is in commercial flight simulators.
In the PC-IG market in 2000, Quantum3D was the leader with a 46
percent share. SGI had a 24 percent share and E&S, 8 percent.
According to Frost & Sullivan, new product introductions from
Quantum3D and SGI are “heating up competition for this still
developing market sub-segment.”
In the object modeling and virtual prototyping software tools market
in 2000, eNGENUITY Technologies Inc. was the market leader with
a 22 percent share. MultiGen-Paradigm had a 15 percent share and
SGI, 9 percent.
In the highly competitive real-time 3D software market, Multigen-Paradigm
was ahead in 2000, with a 22 percent share. Trailing was SGI with
a 14 percent share and Thales Training & Simulation, with 10
percent.
In the scene and terrain database development software tools market,
Terrain Experts was the leader, with a 19 percent share. Trailing
were Autometric, with a 17 percent share and Multigen-Paradigm,
with 16 percent.
The total world market for visual simulation systems amounted to
$2.33 billion in 2000, with a growth rate of 19.8 percent over 1999.
By 2007, Frost & Sullivan expects the world market for visual
simulation will reach $5.3 billion, assuming a compound annual growth
rate of 9.1 percent from 2001-2007.
Much of this growth will be realized in the PC-IG and scene and
terrain database development software markets.
Sales of image generators were $1.14 billion in 2000, with a growth
rate of 12.1 percent over 1999. By 2007, the total market is predicted
to reach $1.64 billion, given a compound annual growth rate of 3.7
percent from 2000-2007.
In 2000, the market for high-end IGs totaled $1.04 billion, marking
a 7.4 percent annual growth rate. PC-IG sales were $98.3 million,
a 108.2 percent growth over 1999.
The visual simulation software tools market was $1.19 billion in
2000, with a growth rate of 28.2 percent over 1999. By 2007 the
market could grow to $3.7 billion, said Frost & Sullivan. Sales
of object modeling and virtual prototyping software tools reached
$429 million in 2000, a 33.7 percent growth over 1999. The size
of market for real-time 3D simulation software was $538.5 million,
an 18.9 percent growth over 1999. And the market for scene and terrain
database development software tools generated revenues of $223.1
million, growing by 43.5 percent.
The following trends have contributed to the growth in visual simulation
software sales, according to Frost & Sullivan:
Conversely, there are other trends that are restraining sales growth,
such as the lack of operating system software standards—which
forces vendors to support more than one system—and a lack
of innovation in the visual simulation software tools market. nd