Non-defense science and technology spending is projected to exceed
Defense Department research and development investments during the
next five years, according to the Government Electronics and Information
Technology Association (GEIA).
Spending on research and development by non-defense agencies and
private industry steadily has increased since the early 1980s, said
GEIA, in its recent forecast. By 2001, civilian research and development
investments will be about the same as the Pentagon’s, approximately
$40 billion. By 2005, non-defense investments in science and technology
will approach $50 billion, according to the study.
Corporate research and development also is experiencing positive
growth, while federal research and development is slowing. This
trend, said GEIA, shows no indication of ending in the foreseeable
future. By 2010, GEIA predicted that only half a percent of the
gross domestic product will be spent on federal research and development,
while industrial research and development will have grown to almost
The non-defense research and development efforts primarily are
dominated by the National Institutes of Health. Other agencies that
fund civilian research work include the National Science Foundation,
the Agriculture Department, the Energy Department and NASA.
Within the Defense Department’s science and technology budget,
the Army will see a 0.6 percent increase, the Navy almost 0.4 and
the Air Force about 0.2 during the next decade. The science and
technology funding is split into three different levels of programs:
6.1 for basic research, 6.2 for applied research and 6.3 for advanced
GEIA projected that 6.1 and 6.2 funding will increase at about
the rate of inflation, while 6.3 will experience sporadic spurts
of growth and periods of decline, as major Pentagon programs transition
from development to acquisition.
The forecast for research and development levels out at $42 billion
by 2010, while procurement increases from $63 billion to $70 billion.
Military aircraft budgets will command about $20 billion.
In constant dollars, GEIA is forecasting an increase in the overall
defense budget from $300 billion in 2001 to $333 billion by 2010.
In current dollars, that becomes $411 billion. The budget increase
is distributed as follows:
Information technology spending will increase from $43 billion
to $51 billion by 2010, according to the study.
In the space arena, GEIA market projections for 2001 to 2010 show
about approximately $180 billion in business opportunities. That
amount is split between satellites–$130 billion–and
launch services, at about $50 billion. Commercial satellites represent
44 percent of sales; military, 29 percent, and government civilian,
27 percent. For launch services, commercial work will constitute
51 percent of the market, 26 percent will be military, and 23 percent
will be government civilian. By 2002, 70 percent of the world space
market will be commercial, said GEIA.
The Air Force/Navy/Marine Corps joint strike fighter (JSF) will
become a significant budget driver in the future, said GEIA. Hughes
Petteway, of Honeywell Inc., said, the JSF "has a major impact
on the future of all tactical fighter aircraft procurement for the
next 20 to 25 years."
The 15 largest defense programs of the decade will comprise 70
percent of total funding, said GEIA. The F/A-18, the F-22 and the
JSF will receive more funding then the remaining 12 programs.
During the next 10 years, research, development and procurement
spending of $305 billion (between 2001 and 2010) will be dominated
by new systems, which will take up 61 percent of the total. The
remaining funds will go to modifications, upgrades, spare parts
and support equipment.
GEIA projects that the start of a national missile defense program
before 2002, and the fielding of various theater missile defense
systems will drain funding from research and development accounts.
Ordnance and weapons will remain somewhat flat through the next
Spending on military vehicles is expected to grow from $5 billion
in 2001, to almost $7.5 billion in 2010. Seventy-one percent of
that is for new vehicles. Twenty-seven percent will go to upgrades
and modifications on existing armored combat vehicles.
For the Navy, GEIA predicts the submarine force structure will
increase from the recommended level of 50 to 55. Surface ships will
remain between 116 and 137. Aircraft carriers will stay at the current
force level of 12.
The levels of force structure for each service will be among the
focal areas of the upcoming Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) of
military strategy and requirements for the next four years.
Tom Davis, a GEIA member of the forecast team, who is employed
by Northrop Grumman Corporation, said the QDR will address:
The debate about national security strategy also should be influenced
by the fact that defense is not a top priority among the American
public, said Davis.
He cited polls where 46 percent of the respondents thought defense
spending is adequate today. About 78 percent supported a pay raise
for military personnel.