BUDGET PREDICTIONS - Decision makers at the Pentagon and on Capitol Hill will
have a tough time modernizing the force with a $12 billion defense budget plus-up
in Fiscal Year 2000, predict defense pundits. First of all, the money is derived
from inflation, and fuel savings, and other unidentified sources. Operations
in Bosnia and pay raises for active duty and retired service members will claim
$4.5 billion, if approved. The remaining $7.5 billion may just cover inflation
adjustments in most line items, say congressional watchers. All told, the department
faces a $30 billion gap each year, over the next six-year period, between procurement
plans and available funding.
... BIG TICKET ITEMS - Several high-profile acquisition items such as the F/A-18E/F
Hornet and F-22 Raptor are expected to remain in favor with the financial gods
in Washington. The shipbuilding industry can also anticipate more work, say
those close to the budget process.
... RESTORING WALLS - Under the current budget cap, Congress cannot allocate
more money for defense without cutting back on domestic packages such as social
security. To change that rule, the budget committees will probably reinstate
firewalls between the two categories during the next round of budget talks.
POWER SPLIT - Rep. J. Dennis Hastert (R-IL) has a tough row to hoe ahead of
him, say congressional insiders. He has to establish himself as leader of the
Republican majority or suffer criticism as the right hand man to the Texas boys-Reps.
Dick Armey (R-TX) and Tom Delay (R-TX). Pessimists say he will not last six
months. Optimists tout his abilities to build consensus and find solutions.
They think he will wield the most power in the 106th Congress with a subtle
hand.
TOO MUCH TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER - The unanimous vote of the Select Committee on
U.S. National Security and Military/Commercial Concerns with People's Republic
of China may make expansion of export initiatives difficult this year. Rep.
Christopher Cox (R-CA) is chairman of the committee. The devil is in the details,
say legislators. Deciding factors will be how many companies are involved and
whether the violations are deliberate abuses or the result of differing interpretations
of the laws.
THE CHECK IS IN THE SNAIL MAIL - Slow payments are hurting some defense contractors,
who claim they are paying out of hide while waiting for the Pentagon to pay
its bills. In an effort to speed things up, the Defense Department comptroller
has lifted the prevalidation threshold for contract invoices to $500,000. The
reprieve, expected to benefit service contractors the most, lasts only 90 days
with no clear cut solutions mapped out for payments after the deadline.
... A SNAIL'S PACE IN 2000? - Industry skeptics are questioning the ability
of the Defense Finance and Accounting System (DFAS) to keep up with payments
in the year 2000. They want DFAS to run a test to prove that its systems are
inoculated and will be ready to pay contractors on time. So far, DFAS has refused
but is facing the federal year 2000 compliance deadline next month.
A MILITARY PRE-OCCUPATION - The Defense Department may soon have a new career
path for soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines. The "information corps"
will create job slots similar to "knowledge masters" and "web
masters" in corporate America, said Vice Adm. Arthur K. Cebrowski, president
of the Naval War College and father of network centric warfare-an idea to integrate
sensors and communications with soldier systems and vehicles across the battlefield.
The service men would convert "data and information into actionable knowledge,"
said Cebrowski, who stressed that the new positions will require a different
skill set than the current signal corps.
... INTEGRATION PREVENTION - "I'm beginning to notice the difference between
integration and networking," said Cebrowski. "There's a wonderful
radar out there we'd like to have in the F-18. Unit cost is low, but integration
cost is $800 million to get your first aircraft. We aren't going to pay that
... The capability is superb, but there's something fundamentally wrong with
the strategy. I think it's an over-dependence on integration and an insufficient
dependence on networking."
The Defense Department does not have a way to quantify the value of integration,
but a standard equation similar to the one that exists for command, control,
communication, computers, and intelligence could go a long way towards seeing
savings, he said.
STAYING ON - Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK), chairman of the Committee on Appropriations,
denies that he is stepping down as chair of the defense appropriations subcommittee
(as reported here in January, 1999), his spokesman told Washington Pulse.